With just over a third of the 2024-25 La Liga season remaining, the Spanish title race is one of the tightest its been in years.

Real Madrid (50 points), Atlético Madrid (49 points), and Barcelona (48 points) are separated by just two points after 23 matchdays, making this the closest three-way title race since the 2013-14 La Liga season.

According to Opta’s Supercomputer, Real Madrid are currently the favorites to win La Liga, securing the title in 52.0% of the 10,000 season simulations, while Barcelona have a 26.9% probability of winning, with Atlético Madrid holding a 20.8% chance.

Other clubs have a near-zero chance of winning the title, with Athletic Club securing first place in just 28 simulations (0.28%) and Villarreal winning once with a 0.01% chance.

Real Madrid: The Statistical Leaders

Position: 1st (50 points, 15 Wins – 5 Draws -3 Losses)
Recent Form: Madrid are winless in their last two matches (0-1 vs Espanyol, 1-1 vs Atlético Madrid)
Key Statistic: Los Blancos have not gone three games without a win in La Liga since November 2020.
Defensive Challenges: Injuries to full-back Dani Carvajal, Eder Militão, David Alaba, Antonio Rüdiger, and Lucas Vázquez have weakened their backline.
Goal Scoring: Kylian Mbappé has contributed 16 goals and 2 assists in his last 18 games after a slow start to the seaosn.
Title Indicator: No team in the last seven seasons has won La Liga without leading in either goals scored or goals conceded. Madrid rank second in attack and fourth in defence.

Barcelona: High-Scoring Contenders

Position: 3rd (48 points, 15 Wins – 3 Draws – 5 Losses)
Goal Scoring: 64 goals, the highest at this stage since Real Madrid’s 66 in 2015-16.
Robert Lewandowski’s Impact: 19 goals in 22 matches**, making him the league’s top scorer.
Youthful Squad: Average starting XI age of **24 years, 323 days**—second youngest in La Liga.
Key Fixture: Barca still have to play both Atlético Madrid and Real Madrid again this season for a chance at the title.
Head-to-Head: Barcelona defeated Real Madrid 4-0 at the Bernabéu and won 5-2 in the Supercopa de España.
Slump Factor: They’ve collected just six points from eight games between November and January, leading to their current position.

Atlético de Madrid: Defensive Excellence

Position: 2nd (49 points, 15 Wins – 4 Draws – 4 Losses)
Defensive Strength: Best defense in La Liga, with the fewest goals conceded (15), Most clean sheets (11, tied with Real Sociedad), Lowest expected goals against (20.3 xGA)
Experience Factor: Oldest squad among title contenders (28 years, 246 days on average).
Home Fortress: Only unbeaten home side in La Liga, with the most points at home (30).
Diego Simeone’s Legacy: Has managed Atlético in over 500 La Liga matches, accumulating 1,031 points — 240 more than Sevilla, the fourth-ranked club in this period.

Key Fixtures and Impact on Title Race

Real Madrid’s Crucial Run:

Matchday 24: Osasuna (A)
Matchday 26: Barcelona (H)
Matchday 27: Atlético Madrid (A)

Barcelona’s Pivotal Matches:

Yet to play both Madrid clubs
Matchday 25: Athletic Club (A)

Atlético Madrid’s Title-Defining Fixture:

Final match before the international break, Atleti face Barcelona, at their unbeaten home stadium (Estadio Metropolitano).

Based on Opta’s analysis, Real Madrid remain favorites but must overcome defensive challenges and key upcoming fixtures. Barcelona’s attacking firepower and their remaining direct matchups give them control of their fate, while Atlético Madrid’s defensive solidity and home advantage make them strong contenders. With three teams still realistically in contention, the 2024-25 La Liga title race is set to be the most competitive it has been in over a decade.

Photo: Angel Martinez/Getty Images