Arsenal’s title hopes hang in the balance after Liverpool’s win over Wolves, but despite the Reds’ seven-point gap, Mikel Arteta’s side are closer to winning the Premier League.
According to Opta, Mikel Merino’s late heroics against Leicester City have marginally closed the gap on League leaders Liverpool.
Prior to matchday 25, Opta’s Supercomputer calculated each Premier League side’s probability of winning the title. Liverpool were at 89.5%, with Arsenal in second spot on 10.9%. Following Mikel Merino’s brace and Mo Salah’s winner Liverpool’s probability dropped by nearly 5%, despite maintaining their seven-point lead.
Arsenal’s win meant more to the computer’s calculations, with their probability rising to 14.1%.
Manchester City’s £75 million Egyptian prince Omar Marmoush announced his arrival with a 14 minute hat-trick against Carabao Cup finalists Newcastle United.
Marmoush’s magic may reignite a disastrous 2024-25 campaign, with the title race all but over, sitting 16 points behind league leaders Liverpool. UEFA Champions League qualification is a must for Guardiola’s side, with Nottingham Forest, Chelsea, Newcastle, Aston Villa, and Bournemouth providing competition.
An explanation for Arsenal’s increased chances could be the perceived difficulty of future fixtures. Liverpool face Aston Villa at Villa Park on Wednesday before travelling to defending Champions Manchester City in matchday 26 and finally host Newcastle United in matchday 27.
Villa’s form at home, alongside the turn-around in Manchester City’s performances thanks to January signings and Newcastle United’s threat of Alexander Isak and Anthony Gordon make it a challenging run for the Reds.
Arsenal, on the other hand, have become more favourable after matchday 24, with West Ham United, Nottingham Forest, Manchester United and Chelsea all losing.
The next few fixtures will weigh heavily on the supercomputer’s calculations, with Liverpool wins at Villa and Manchester City further cementing them as odds-on favourites, while any stumble will give Arsenal an opportunity to get back into the title race.
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